Cassidy Steele Dale forecasts and contextualizes the present to equip us to make a better, kinder future…
… and one of those ways to give you Part Five of why we’re not going to have another Civil War.
OK, let’s recap the past few weeks before I get to One Last Giant Thing.
I’ve been arguing that we will not have another civil war in this country any time soon because what’s needed for one is missing. It’s absent. I’ve been saying…
Mere political polarization isn’t enough for another civil war. Polarization + Guns + Economic or other “conditions” aren’t nearly enough. Plenty of places have those and aren’t civil-warring. What’s needed are narratives of existential threat and a clear crisis point ahead. (Worried yet? Hang on a minute.)
States will not go to war with other states because that ain’t who we are any more. Red areas won’t even go to war with Blue areas, either — or vice versa.
There are no armies. The National Guard won’t take sides. The U.S. military will stay on base.
There are no mass mobs that will serve as proxy armies. Militias won’t even be able to set up Baconator logistics lines. Antifa or BLM? Nope. Forget it.
Right wing militias are defensive in orientation and largely self-limiting. The nutbars who have mass-killed and blown up other Americans have been the ones who drifted through militia groups and then left.
Also, it’s hard to have a civil war if the two sides won’t shoot at each other — and they don’t and won’t. Why? Because liberals attack systems they think are responsible for wrongdoing while conservatives attack individuals who they believe are the wrongdoers. (Actually, before anything else, conservatives withdraw and isolate from society when they feel threatened, then when they feel cornered they attack ‘the wrongdoers.’) The two “sides” are not mirror images of each other and they usually do not “aim” their “weapons” at each other.
Again, what’s missing? Both sides would need a narrative of emergency and they’d need a crisis point.
Here’s where I get scary. Here’s the One Giant Last Thing:
If we’re going to have anything like a civil war in this country it’s going to start by late next January. The last things necessary to have another civil war will be in place by November and everything is already lining up for them to be in place by then:
Both Trump and Biden are providing existential-threat narratives of emergency and this Election Day this November is providing the crisis point.
Biden has begun arguing that another Trump term will jeopardize American democracy at home and the world over.
Trump has begun arguing that if he doesn’t win, Republicans won’t be able to win the presidency again — ever.
Both of them may be right.
So the minute this election is decided half of the country is going to freak the fuck out.
The moment the election is called expect to hear one sound or another. If Biden wins, that CHACK you’ll hear will be a thousand bullets in a thousand guns being chambered. If Trump wins, that THUNK you’ll hear will be Bonhoeffer selling out on Amazon.
How can we forecast what will happen? Just wind back to the 2020 presidential election and then think twice about that happening again.
If Trump loses he won’t accept the loss. (He’s already saying he won’t.) He’ll claim the election was stolen and will throw MAGA warriors against those he says are stealing the election: vote-counters, state houses in swing states, and Congress. He did it before and they went. And we got very lucky. And last time no one was ready. This time the system is getting ready — because even most Republicans at each and all of those levels — know he will do it again. And they’re getting ready for a repeat and they’re preparing for ten times worse.
To reiterate: When I say we’re not going to have another civil war I’m not saying there won’t be some mass-shooting and some mass-killing; I’m saying that even if there is that there won’t be reciprocal violence — that there won’t be another civil war.
So, in the swing states, for the vote counters alone, at minimum:
In Wisconsin, those election workers will jam their cheesehead hats into all the doors like doorstops and keep counting.
In Michigan, they’ll let the Trump rioters come right through the door, then they will beat them down hard, shout DON’T YOU FUCKING SHOOT ME AGAIN. DON’T YOU FUCKING SHOOT ME AGAIN. PICK UP YOUR TEETH AND GET OUT. DO NOT LEAVE YOUR TEETH IN HERE. And then they’re going to sit right back down to bleed and curse and count. Don’t offer them a sandwich or medical attention, just leave them alone.
In Pennsylvania, well, Google Maps, GPS, guide dogs, and a Sherpa couldn’t find the building even if the rest of the state burned down flat because the roads there were planned by Satan. Because Pennsylvania’s greatest defense remains Pennsylvania.
In North Carolina, some sweet old lady is going to head them off by saying “SWEETIES-DARLINGS-LAMB-CHILDS, BEFORE WE INSURRECT, THE BARBECUE IS OVER THERE. YOU CAN’T INSURRECT ON AN EMPTY STOMACH, CAN YOU NOW?” and two-helpings-of-Benadryl-laced-BBQ-sauce-later the vote of the residents of the Great State of North Carolina will be saved.
In Georgia, every fat cop from across the state is going to be in that building whacking rioters square in the foreheads with their billyclubs and saying NO, WE MAY BE BAD BUT WE AIN’T GONNA LET NOBODY TAKE AWAY OUR VOTE. WE USE THESE STICKS ON THE STUPID WHITE BOYS. WE USE THE SHOTGUNS ON THE OTHER AND YOU DIDN’T BRING NONE OF THE-OTHER WITH YOU NOW DID YOU, BOY? LAY DOWN NOW SO I CAN REACH THE DUMBASS BEHIND YOU. STEP RIGHT UP, MISTER — I GOT A WHOLE LOT MORE GEORGIA FOR YOU. COME ON, NOW.
You think I’m kidding? You know all of this is true. If you haven’t figured out already by this point after everything and in spite of every-damn-thing after that the Americans who show up to run elections and count votes in THIS election are the bravest of the brave among us that-ever-have-been then YOU HAVE NOT BEEN PAYING ATTENTION TO AMERICA.
Think none of that will hold and a bunch of fake electors will show up in Congress with fake votes for Vice President Former-California-Attorney-General-Will-Kick-Your-Ass Kamala Harris to certify? She will electorally say OH HELL NO and we will have ourselves a good big Constitution-scale ‘fight’ on our hands.
Maybe another Capitol Riot? NO. Mass shootings in the state houses of swing states? Maybe - but maybe not.
The folks who might-even-barely-consider massing for another effort to take the Capitol or mass-kill in state houses of swing states are already so paranoid that half of them already believe that any future incitement to riot will be a trap set by federal law enforcement who will be lying in wait to arrest them and send them to prison.
And why? Because it will be a trap. Federal law enforcement will be lying in wait. State Police in every swing state will be lying in wait. They won’t be inciting to riot but they will be about ten feet inside every Capitol and state Capitol door with their riot gear, giggling and grinning, and saying Here, kitty kitty. Heeeeeeeeeeere, kitty kitty.
What kind of batshit might they bat-shit after all of that — by maybe March? Their first, second, and third responses will be to withdraw, isolate, and try to claim Nebraska-or-wherever to be safe for Christians and Cracker Barrel and ISIS. And then they won’t leave the state. Which is a different problem.
If Biden loses, expect total paralysis of the American system at every level. And expect the United States military — probably 20 minutes after Trump’s inauguration and his first order to them — to lateral back to ask the most fundamental question for a year or two or four: What is a lawful order?
We are not going to have another civil war in this country. We decided a long time ago we won’t; we decided instead that this is how we actually fight now.
Oh - and we are not going to become The Handmaid’s Tale, either.
Why not? I’ll tell you next week.
Interesting that you pointed out the crisis point could occur in January. I think that’s right, although I think there could be some isolated incidents prior to that.
I think we can count on a number of local and regional troubles at polling stations, some of them serious.
Where do you think and how does the existential threat manifest and metastasis? I think that’s key to understanding the size and scope of any armed conflict.
John Brown and Harper’s Ferry comes to mind. Martyrdom sparks a movement that spreads across the country.
On a much smaller scale, Ashli Babbit became a rallying cry for some J6 insurrectionists.
If you let your imagination wander a little, how about; hostages taken in Maricopa County for a recount, Cobb County locks out election workers, Michigan Sheriff arrests local election officials, you get the idea.
It’s an understatement that October 2024 to January 2025 is going to be intense. It’s truly unfortunate that “the rule of law” has taken such a beating in the last decade.
LOL. We should move swing state voting locations and election counting to buildings next to strip clubs..that will distract MAGA.