My Dog-Poop Theory of Why We're Not Going to Have Another Civil War
Why as long as dogs protest-poop on lawns we shouldn't lose hope.
Cassidy Steele Dale forecasts and contextualizes the present to equip us to make a better, kinder future…
… and one of those ways to give you Part Two of why we’re not going to have another Civil War.
Last week I said We’re not going to have another civil war because we’re not going to have another civil war.
And here’s more of why.
Yes, we’re polarized and angry with each other enough to kill each other, burn each other to the ground, stir the cinders, and burn the cinders again. We absolutely are. And yes, we’re armed to the teeth and even our teeth are armed because our teeth have Second Amendment rights because this is America.
And the polarization shows up in polls. And the fears of another civil war show up in the polls. Which is why people make videos like this. Which is very worth watching.
Let me know when you crawl out of the ditch you threw-and-fetal-positioned yourself into.
Here’s why not to freak out:
First, videos (and books) like this are the nonfiction equivalent of the movie Civil War. They’re not forecasts; they’re warnings of what could happen if we have another civil war so we should do everything we can to steer ourselves away from one.
Second, while the video is actually a very good overview of the academic research on how civil wars start it actually repeats the same mistake that most civil war prognosticators are making right now: that (1) polarization and (2) guns and (3) “conditions” like weak economies and strong strongmen are not enough to start a civil war. Lots of places around the world have those things all the time and they are not civil-warring. So what’s missing? Every-damn-thing-else. Namely, Americans (4) have to give up on nonviolent means of change first, (5) decide violence is necessary instead, and (6) need a crisis event — or an event they perceive as a crisis — to push them over the edge.
So let’s look at these, starting with (4).
(4) Are Americans giving up on nonviolence means of change? Faaaaaar from it. Americans have been voting in record numbers in recent elections. Americans hauled their asses out at risk of disease and death to vote in 2020 and haven’t slowed down since. So don’t worry about another civil war if-and-while Americans are voting; worry when they stop. And despite how little faith some Americans have in some American institutions they behave otherwise: Americans keep trying to make change through legislation and through court cases. Don’t worry about another civil war if-and-while Americans keep trying to make and overturn laws; worry when they stop bothering to deploy legislators and lawyers. Worry when they stop waiting in abject terror and gritted teeth to see how an election turns out or how a court rules because that will mean they’ve given up on elections and the court system.
(5) Are Americans deciding — or arguing — that violence is now the only way remaining to make change? No and not even many militia groups really are (which is something I’ll talk about next week). More often Americans throw roadblocks to thwart or slow oncoming change and when the roadblocks fail they tend to try to retreat and isolate themselves rather than lash out. Don’t worry about another civil war until the fearful can’t delay, isolate, or retreat any more and conclude they’re backed into an existential-life-or-death corner. Fortunately, both sides are still ten Texas miles from running out of road on that one.
(6) Do Americans have (or perceive) a crisis event ahead? Yes — this November. Trump has started arguing that if Americans don’t elect him in November, Republicans will never win the presidency again. Biden has started arguing that if Americans don’t elect him in November, we will sunset American democracy by our own hand. Don’t worry about another civil war until or unless one or both sides start saying that the present (or almost-present) moment is their last chance to save themselves and their ways of life. So on that one… yikes.
Next week I’ll talk about what might happen when (4-6) all flip to yes.
Rebecca, I hear you: But what about the militias? I’m getting to it and right now I’m crafting another piece of a Grand Unified Extremely Simple Field Theory of Violent Political-Religious Assholery but I don’t know what to call it yet and God hasn’t yet sent me the sass.
But we are not going to have another civil war.
Need a bit of early proof? And a way to tie together everything I’ve just said? We’re seeing it right now. No, not the protests and the protesters. (More on that probably next week.)
But no, I mean the other thing that’s been flying under your radar: A few days ago South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem self-admitted that years ago she killed her dog for the crime of being a happy dog. And dogs do not like that, Americans do not like that, and there is no moral statute of limitations on dog-murder. Dogs across America have concluded that she presents a clear and present dog-danger and something has to be done.
So.
Are dogs across America digging up caches of buried Soviet-era assault rifles and grenades out of their back yards and planning a Dog Team Six attack on the South Dakota Governor’s Mansion? No, of course not, because dogs are not Communists.
No, instead right now dogs across America are organizing fleets of carpools because they found Kristi Noem’s home address on the Internet. So that dog you petted on the sidewalk just stole your car keys out of your pocket, barked to the dog park, and is gonna pull up beside you in your car with a pile of dogs sipping bran smoothies and the radio turned up too loud. And she’s gonna roll that window down, sip that smoothie and wink, and then she’s gonna floor it and peel off into the distance with all her howling friends while shouting GURLLLLL, WE’RE GONNA SHIT ON HER LAAWWWNNNNNN!!!
And that’s why war is hell. And that’s why we’re all gonna be OK.
Because dogs shitting aren’t dogs shooting.
And I’ll see you next week.
I knew you'd hear me.