We Are Not Going to Have Another Civil War. What Happens Instead May Be Far Better. And Far Worse.

Cassidy Steele Dale forecasts and contextualizes the present to equip us to make a better, kinder future…

… and one of those ways to give you Part One of why we’re not going to have another Civil War.

Up front: Americans are not special. We could have another Civil War. We’ve done it before – and we’ve done worse. We’ve fought one of the largest, deadliest, mass-slaughter civil wars in the history of mankind, we’re incredibly armed and we use those guns on ourselves and our fellow citizens every single day, and if you’ve forgotten, we’re still the only nation on Earth that has ever detonated nuclear weapons in anger. We can – and do – go bad sometimes. 

However.

Previously I laid out four potential futures for American democracy between now and 2040. Significant civil violence is possible in two of the four scenarios. The violence is perpetrated mostly by one side in one of the four scenarios and is perpetrated reciprocally in another. 

• These four potential futures are not what most political prognosticators have been forecasting, and look further out. 

• None of the scenarios – not even the two in which limited violence is likely – result in a Second American Civil War. 

We are not going to have another Civil War. 

Here’s why:

There is no modern circumstance in which American states will go to war with other American states.

Armed conflict between American states is not in the cards. 

• States aren’t little independent mini-countries like they were in the mid-1800s. 

• States’ economies are interconnected now in ways they weren’t in the runup to the Civil War and states don’t have their own militaries. Further, no American state’s economic strength is dependent upon the labor of slaves and no other American state has that as an animating objection. American states know now that inter-state warfare would amount to economic suicide immediately. 

• The risk some prognosticators worried about ten or twenty years ago – that the U.S. might break up into new countries made up of economic blocs – is probably off the table as the U.S. has begun re-shoring and friend-shoring some of its industries and capacities again, which is more apt to stitch American states’ economies even closer together. (Side note: those previously-forecasted economic blocs like, say, the Pacific Northwest carving itself off, California seceding, etc. were a fear rooted in globalization making parts of the U.S. face away to abandon from the main body of the United States, not face inward to conflict with other U.S. states.) Nowadays, for all the secessionist daydreaming in Texas and California nobody there is seriously considering or attempting it and not even Texans truly want to secede from the Union because Buc-ee’s Beaver Nuggets gotta be shipped in from somewhere.

• Many Americans have lived in more than one state. Americans still find their identity – and invest their loyalty – in their national identity rather than their state identity. Everyone in this country thinks of themselves as an American patriot first and an Ohio patriot never at all. 

And there’s no future in which Red and Blue geographic areas go to war with each other. 

• Yes, most cities and (increasingly) most suburbs are Blue and rural areas are Red. And yes, the rural Red areas are emptying out as people migrate into Blue areas… where even Red people trend Blue over time. 

• Cities don’t have militias, rural militias can’t take cities, and police don’t know (or care about) land maneuver warfare. 

• Separately-but-related: If you live in a Red state and think that Red states have meaningful leverage against Blue states economically or by, like, withholding American agriculture from Blue states or cities, forget it. Agribusiness won’t sacrifice itself for Red states or Red areas. And somewhere around 88% of U.S. GDP comes from about 350 cities and municipalities (the bulk of which are Blue) and only 12% from rural areas (which are often Red). So if you think the Red states are half of the country or half of the economy and have the power to blackmail or starve out Blue areas into doing their will, you better get right with Jesus and math and do it fast. 

There is no room in any building anywhere in this country where Florida and Georgia are plotting to attack Virginia. There is no new Confederate States of America being secretly organized or assembled somewhere. The South is not rising again. It’s the wrong paradigm for our current political situation and none of that crap is in the cards now.

The National Guard forces in American states — despite that they are commanded by each state’s governor — will not function as any state’s military force on a battlefield against other Americans. 

The National Guard isn’t designed for that, built for that, armed for that, or willing to do it. At best it’s built for short-term peacekeeping, helping enforce curfews, disaster relief, and a few other things; they can’t incur into other states. And if Governor Livid were to order his National Guard to invade a neighboring state, that National Guard commander say OOPS I dropped the motor pool’s car keys down the grate on my way into the Governor’s Mansion, sir, I’ll need the city to get down there and retrieve them. I’m willing to sign the forms. Whatever they are. In triplicate. On Monday. No, NEXT Monday. 

No, the United States military will not get involved. They will stay on base.

This was a major concern of U.S. military senior officers especially toward the end of Trump’s term — that Trump would order the military to help him conduct a self-coup to keep him in office and/or to order the military to attack unarmed American protesters as if they were an advancing hostile foreign force. The debate among many senior U.S. military officers appeared to be not whether to fulfill any such order but over how to balk.

Trump’s actions — and how he duped many federal and local police officers and the D.C. National Guard into attacking unarmed protesters in Lafayette Square on June 1, 2020 — made many U.S. military officers blanch. Every U.S. military officer is trained to the point where the following is in the blood they bleed: U.S. forces are not to defend, not attack Americans, and that U.S. forces are commanded by civilian officials — they are the arm of the will of the American people. For any segment of the U.S. military to attack Americans would first require a total, deep, and complete overriding of everything those U.S. military officers believe.

If you’ve been paying attention to what significant numbers of former U.S. military officers and officials have been saying and interpolate that to current officers (who as currently-serving professionals do not comment on such matters), you’ve already noticed that mannnnnny military officers loathe Trump. I mean a lot of them wouldn’t tactically piss on him if he were strategically on fire. 

If some crackpot officer tries to take his guys out to invade Vermont or attack the White House or the Capitol, the Secretary of the Army (or the relevant senior officer) is (a) probably going to notice ahead of time and (b) apt to Soup-Nazi him and his guys with a NO PENSION FOR YOU and COURT MARTIAL FOR YOU IF YOUR WHEELS HIT PAVEMENT and THE ONLY HOSPITAL NEARBY WITH A BULLET-TRAUMA CENTER TO TREAT YOU IS IN THAT BLUE CITY YOU’RE ABOUT TO INVADE AND THEY DON’T LIKE YOU. And if that doesn’t cut off that force at the knees, other officers and their units will stop them.

Lots of people are saying (in polls) they’re afraid we’re going to have another civil war but no one is actually seriously arguing, organizing, or planning for one. And there are no “armies” to fight one.

Sure, there are some scary polls that say that a lot of Americans think another civil war is going to happen in the next decade and/or that violence may be needed to fix the country somehow but hardly anyone – except a few Clark Bars on YouTube and online – are actually trying to organize and plan for a civil war. 

I am not worried about mass warfare between large groups of Americans in a battlefield situation. 

First, other than Trump there’s no living major American political figure who could even halfway inspire any significant amount of violence. Think about it: 

• Marjorie Taylor Greene couldn’t successfully lead an insurrection out of a parking lot.

• Matt Gaetz? If he attempts to lead anything the next headline will read MAN WITH MOST PUNCHABLE FACE IN WASHINGTON GETS PUNCHED IN THE FACE IN WASHINGTON BY REPUBLICAN. The Second Civil War would end with him out cold in the Cloak Room.  

• Bernie Sanders? He wants social justice, better mittens, a decent rural hospital system, and soup. 

• President Biden couldn’t inspire mass violence because he does not want to.

Second, not even Trump could probably do it nowadays. The “army” he deployed against the Capitol on January 6 was made up of only the crowd in attendance that day — and no one beyond that responded to his calls anywhere else in the country. At all. Trump’s crowds now outside the courthouse for his election interference trial in New York number about two dozen people who could probably be defeated by an elite Waffle House night shift crew.

Not even George Washington could do it these days. Think about it: 

• If a Republican George Washington rose from the dead and tried to muster an army to fight Democrats TODAY, the Republicans who would deign to respond would be so disorganized and confused they’d rally in the nearest Wendy’s parking lot and not be able to organize their own lunch order much less a battle plan or any Baconator-centric logistics lines. (Side note: I would consider fighting if Baconators were a consistent part of the logs line.) Remember that the last time a large-ish number of armed conservatives attempted to take over anything for more than an afternoon they couldn’t successfully hold (or supply themselves at) a national park.

• If a Democratic George Washington rose from the dead and tried to muster an army to fight Republicans TODAY, the Democrats who would deign to respond would more like say “Fight who? You mean like actually shoot-fight with guns? Why? Hey, man, you OK? You don’t look so good. Come sit down over here. We have electricity in this Wendy’s. And air conditioning. We invented mayonnaise while you were gone. Those guys over there with the guns love mayo. Oh, and we got rid of slavery. Baconator? 

In order to have a big ol’ civil war you have to have two big, mass-armed sides. There aren’t two big, mass-armed sides and aren’t going to be. And when’s the last time you heard of an armed liberal militia?

But what about Antifa? No. Just… no.  

Antifa doesn’t actually exist – not really. It’s a point of view. And it’s a “group” that only sorta occasionally exists for a few hours at a time. It’s a reaction ‘force’ that shows up to respond when Nazis show up in American streets and it goes home when the Nazis leave. That’s it.

• Antifa is short for “antifascist.” “Antifa” are just people who believe this country is where Germany was in about 1930 when Nazis won the public square by literally beating up Germans of conscience until the Germans of conscience were cowed. Antifa here sees themselves as the people who will go out into the street and thwart Neo-Nazis from taking control of the public square and of public discourse.

• This means no actual Nazis in the streets = no antifa. Don’t want any antifa running around? Then don’t put Nazis into the streets.

• Why haven’t you seen antifa in the streets since the Trump era? No Nazis in the streets now. 

What are antifa doing when they’re not in the streets shouting at, doxxing, and/or punching Nazis?

NOTHING. There is no Secret-Antifa-Ninja-Force. There are no Secret-Antifa-Ninja-Force al-Qaeda training camps somewhere in San Francisco where they are all gay-marrying each other and strategizing how to snowflake-murder-you with avocado toast. 

• Also: Secret-Antifa-Ninja-Force-That-Doesn’t-Actually-Exist is NEVER coming out to your town in the country to maraud BECAUSE THERE IS NOTHING OUT THERE THAT THEY WANT.

Yes, I’m oversimplifying this… but not by much. But right now, real “antifa” is home eating Doritos. 

Moreso, most “antifa” don’t even think they’re antifa. Listen, right now somewhere out there is some dumbass who once halfway-punched a Nazi during a Tiki-Torch-White-Power March a few years ago who’s back in the apartment and he’s just seen some NRA propaganda implying that Secret-Antifa-Ninja-Force is coming for Hellfire, Montana and Hellfire-ians should buy as many guns as possible RIGHT NOW to fend off that oncoming Masked Antifa Force and he’s wandering back into the hallway with his Doritos and saying “Mike! Mike! This thing online says we have bombs and shit and a plan or something. Do we have bombs and shit? Is there a group text? Are we not on it? You’d tell me if there was a group text with a plan, right? Do I need to wash my black hoodie? Not that one, the Walmart one. The one I wear to work. I have a shift at Sweet Frog on Thursday. I can’t go do ninja shit on Thursday because Craig will get pissed. I’m going down to the laundry room. I’m taking the Doritos.” 

• Spoiler alert to you and Doritos Boy: There is no group text. There is no antifa master plan. There are no bombs and shit. But Doritos are on sale right now at Safeway. Right there on the endcap. So Vaya con Dios. 

OK, about Black Lives Matter because somebody is going to ask.

No, Black Lives Matter is not going to overthrow America or cause societal collapse. When police kill an unarmed black man, the black (and the rest of the human) community has said, “Police, please do not kill us disproportionately to the rates you kill non-black people.” When the police reply with “We don’t see a problem here. We will kill you at the rates we want. And you’re just going to have to like it,” the community tends to lodge its objections more vociferously. So police, if you don’t do dumb things and then dismiss, ignore, or double down on it you will not have protests. Also, when the community feels that they have not been abandoned by politicians (like Trump when he was in office) they do not conclude that they have been left completely alone to defend their lives and rights by themselves. Anyway, that’s it. That’s all of it. That’s the whole thing.  

• Looters are the ones who predatorily-piggyback off of them; they are not them. 

• Anti-murder protesters have not yet learned that if/when they wind up ‘controlling territory’ because the police have backed up a few blocks that the protesters themselves must secure their ‘territory’ from looters who will swoop in from behind. Because predatory media figures will cynically claim that the looters are you and you are the looters and thereby discredit your Please-don’t-murder-us-at-undue-rates message. Ironically, it will help if the public sees anti-murder protesters thwarting looters by night and protesting peacefully by day. 

So to recap so far: I am not worried about a Second Civil War of the sort of the First. No states against states, no militaries against militaries on battlefields, and no Alliance of Mayonnaise Militias against an Antifa-Dorito-Horde. There’s no alliances, no organizations, and no armies. While there’s fear of another Civil War but no one is seriously arguing for one, organizing for one, planning for one, or fighting one. Anywhere. 

I’m arguing absence. What’s necessary for another big-battle, mass-death, total-disaster Civil War is not present. If we as a country had decided we will have another Civil War soon we would be actually building anything toward one and we’re not.

I hear you, though: But that can’t be right! None of this can be right! What about all the militia groups? What about all the discussion and screaming online and on social media?? Surely we must be about to come to blows!!

Maybe people will but armies won’t. And I’m less worried about that than you might think.

But that’s the subject for next week.