Some Knowns and Unknowns about the 2024 Presidential Campaign
Cassidy Steele Dale writes to equip you with the forecasts, foresight skills and perspectives, and tools you may need to create a better, kinder world.
And one of those ways is to show how a futurist looks out over 2024.
Hokay, buckle up: here we go.
A few weeks ago I gave you a crash course in how professional futurists do their forecasting. Futurists decide what specifically they want to forecast, then look at the knowns (trends under way) and unknowns (variables/as-yet-unanswered questions/not-yet-made decisions) ahead on that issue, and arrange those knowns and unknowns in useful ways. They also try to do 360-degree look-arounds at all the knowns and unknowns may affect the future of that topic. So, for example, forecasts of the economy would also necessitate considering non-economic factors that could impact the economy. As a device to help futurists do that 360-degree look-around, they created a few acronyms: STEEPM, STEEPER, EPISTLE, and others.
STEEPM stands for (1) Social/Cultural trends or factors, (2) Technological, (3) Economic, (4) Environmental, (5) Political, and (6) Military. STEEPER subs out Military for "(6) Existential — a placeholder for X factors not captured otherwise, and (7) Religious — changes within, to, or of a religious strain.
EPISTLE stands for (1) Environmental trends, (2) Psychological (my Existential above), (3) Institutional/Political, (4) Social, (5) Technological, (6) Legal and (7) Economic.
BIG NOTE: Most of the time I use STEEPER rather than STEEPM because Military factors aren’t usually major factors for the futures of most topics — it’s sort of a geopolitical or international relations thing — and Religious trends, at least in the U.S., affect more of the topics that affect Americans’ day-to-day lives. I also tend not to use EPISTLE because usually the first things to affect this country tend to be Social/Cultural and Economic Trends, then Political and Technological, etc. and the last parts of American society to change usually are the legal and educational arenas.
I say usually because that’s not going to be the case for 2024.
The biggest things in 2024 that probably will shape the next few decades of the United States are within the Political, Legal, Economic, Social/Cultural, and the Religious arenas — and probably in that order. What I mean is that the historical hinge points contained within 2024 are probably within those arenas. So, you know, PLESR.
Anyway, that’s too many factors to deal with in a single newsletter — I’ll break them out over several newsletters — but here’s some quick glimpses:
Political — the 2024 elections are a main determinant of the next few decades for the United States as a country, period. Full stop.
Legal — The Supreme Court this year will decide a series of cases that are critical for how the entirety of the federal system will work and who will have full voting rights or not.
Economic — 2023 may have provided some lessons on how to ward off a recession (remember that this time last year economists were portending economic doom). Question for 2024 is whether we’re out of the woods on that for now or not for 2024.
Social/Cultural — Our (demographers’ and pollsters’) understandings of the American public may be fundamentally flawed, and/or public opinion (and American character) may be fundamentally changing. We may be at the end of a cultural or mindset era and the next mindset-era is trying to break through (something I started talking about here).
More on most of those in future newsletters.
Right now here’s how I’m trying to parse through the Political arena in 2024.
Here’s my personal checklist of knowns and unknowns for the presidential election. They’re not forecasts; they’re the clarifying-thinking necessary before you can attempt to forecast.
Quick hits first:
Even though Colorado’s (Republican) argument that Trump should be excluded from the ballot in the state was written by (Republican) Constitutional originalists in a way designed to be catnip for Supreme Court originalists, I still suspect SCOTUS will say If we’re too originalist-ic here we may miss the entire point of, you know, American democracy. Maybe Trump should remain on the ballot everywhere. After all, Americans are free to choose whom they want as candidates and Americans are free to sunset the American Experiment if they want to. And they’re free to repudiate that sunset for another hundred years if they want to. I expect that decision from SCOTUS in January or February.
If/once SCOTUS considers Trump’s arguments that he has immunity from criminal prosecution I suspect SCOTUS will respond NO. Then they may giggle. Legally.
Those said, barring major age-and/or-cheeseburger-related health events, Biden and Trump will become the nominees. And, barring major age-and/or-cheeseburger-related health events, they will be the two main candidates on Election Day.
Also important: CURRENT POLLING IS NOT A KNOWN. IT’S NOT DATA RELIABLE ENOUGH FOR FORECASTING. AND IT AIN’T A FORECAST OF WHO IS GOING TO WIN. Polling this far ahead of an election measures mood. And right now America has low blood sugar and is cranky. America needs a snack and a juice box.
Nevertheless, some recent polls indicate that if the election were held today Trump would win. Handily. And that inspired a collective pants-crapping by the free (and aspiring free) world. This sort of rightful-but-too-early panic among Democrats and moderate Republicans inspired some to generate the nightmare scenarios I wrote about here and here.
OK, so:
What could significantly increase or erode support for one candidate or the other between now and Election Day? What are our presidential-campaign knowns and unknowns about the next 11 months?
Here’s my list with little plus and minus signs for whether I suspect something is apt to increase or erode a candidate’s support.
For Trump:
(+) Support for Trump as a candidate. Let’s start with that as a baseline. Setting aside Trump’s current polling for a second, in 2016 when he was the “change” candidate he won 46% of the popular vote. In 2020 he won slightly more but still only 46-47% of the popular vote. (The distribution of that 46% across particular swing states allowed him to win in the Electoral College in 2016 and lose in 2020.) Extra points: I don’t think any Republican presidential candidate has broken 46% since 1992 except once and that was for George W. Bush’s re-election campaign. The country turned blue thirty years ago and the Electoral College is finally slowly catching up. Maybe.)
Trump held this level of support before the Capitol Riot, before the end of Roe v. Wade, and before evidence that he attempted to overturn election results in seven states came to light. So Trump’s current better-than-46% levels of support as reflected by polling means that (a) he lost X% amount of support from all of those things plus more, (b) somehow regained it even among Republican women who wanted to retain their rights to choose, and (c ) somehow found new supporters or converted some Biden supporters to Trump supporters. Possible… but Skeptical Futurist is skeptical.
(-) Support loss from reaction to the end of Roe v. Wade and immediate subsequent GOP actions to limit abortion access in many states. The disparity between expectations and actual results in most of the special elections in September may have been borne of poll respondents’ difference in support merely for the candidate and for the issues. And while election results in normal November elections wherever typically aren’t predictors of results in a general election for presidential elections, the results of special elections might be. And Democrats overperformed in those special elections bigly. (Here’s a discussion of the back and forth on the forecasting value — or lack thereof — of special election results.) And here’s Chris Hayes’ recap of 538’s layout of this year’s special elections.
(-) Support loss from civil cases. This loss may not amount to much but there’s a real chance that New York may fine Trump so much they take the Trump Organization into receivership and dissolve it to pay it off the fines. Skeptical of that? Trump’s not. The New York fraud civil case is the only one he’s shown up in person for. (If you recall, the judge awarded the two innocent Georgia election workers that Guiliani defamed $100 million more than they asked for, so… anything’s possible here. I secretly suspect some judges maintain a strategic reserve of whoopass to punish unmitigated gall.) Why does this matter? For a sliver of Trump’s supporters Trump’s credibility as a president is predicated upon his success as a businessman — a success that will have been proven in court to have been built, in gospel terms, on a foundation of sand.
(-) Support loss from criminal convictions. This is the big one. I think many Democrats have been holding out hope all along that some court might convict Trump for something and send him to jail and he wouldn’t be able to run for president. That’s not going to happen and Democrats should stop hoping for that. BUT.
Convictions — any criminal convictions — could fatally damage his election chances. Remember (1) not all Republicans are the MAGA faithful, (2) law and order Republicans, MAGA faithful or not, still believe in jury verdicts and the criminal court system, (3) for a large chunk of them, post-conviction, will stop seeing Trump as a devil-may-care rabble-rouser that “the system” wants to get rid of and will view him as yet another convict who was caught in the act, proven guilty, and that his “I’m innocent” screaming will just become the same thing every other convict screams as he’s dragged to prison by the bailiffs at the end of the movie. Even if he’s still out on appeal by November.
Why do I think this? Because Republicans have been saying so. Repeatedly.
In a recent poll a third of Republican voters say Trump should not be the GOP nominee if he’s convicted of a crime even if he has already secured the nomination.
Voters in a series of swing states said they won’t vote for Trump if he’s convicted in such large numbers that Biden would receive a fourteen point swing in his direction. Biden would win all of the swing states — and the election — handily. (Here’s a roundup of sources for these polls plus some discussion.)
Now, to repeat myself CURRENT POLLING IS NOT RELIABLE DATA FOR FORECASTING; it just captures the current mood. But what’s that Republican mood gonna be after a conviction? Better for Trump — or worse? “Persecution” may gain Trump a bit of support but a successful prosecution won’t.
So let’s disregard the rates in those polls and instead let’s nevertheless posit that Trump does lose a bit of support each time he’s convicted, but merely say, only a single percentage point or even half-percentage point each time.
Trump faces 91 criminal charges over four indictments and he’ll be tried for at least two, perhaps three of those indictments between now and Election Day. He may be in court for the fourth on Election Day.
This March, Trump goes on trial for election obstruction — the January 6 Capitol Riot stuff plus more. Four criminal charges. Evidence was on TV and online in front of God and everybody. Trial not apt to be delayed for more than a few weeks if at all. This case is the most dangerous for Trump’s reelection chances and his place in history.
Later in March, Trump goes on trial for hush-money-to-a-porn-star-to-preserve-his-2016-electoral-chances. 34 criminal charges. The evidence here is based on extensive direct testimony and damning financial records.
In late May, Trump goes on trial for, uh, unduly keeping classified documents. 40 criminal charges. Photographic evidence from his ballroom and downstairs crapper plus far, far more.
Some time later, maybe (heck) August or September, Trump goes on trial for trying to steal Georgia’s Electoral College votes plus more. 13 more charges. Evidence is Trump on tape directly soliciting criminal behavior so bad that Trump’s legal team probably crapped their pinstripe suit pants so bad that the legal team’s dogs probably crapped their pants.
Presuming that each trial, once it starts, lasts 3-4 months, and presuming that the evidence bears out in the ways that Trump freely admits to in public then by about mid-summer 2024 Trump could be convicted for maybe one-to-three dozen crimes. At one-to-half-a-one percentage points each then he’s crashing by 6 to 36 percentage points by the time of the GOP convention in July. And that sounds bad.
And he’ll probably be on trial for the rest in November. For trying to steal the election in Georgia. On every Georgia TV station and on every Georgia news website and newspaper. In front of Georgia voters. While Georgia is a swing state. And has voters in it. And voters in other states where he attempted the same will be watching. In Arizona and Michigan and Nevada and New Mexico and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Ain’t like none of those are swing states.
(-) EXTRA POINT: Support loss from fear of arrest for actually breaking actual laws. Ever since January 6 when Trump has tried to rally his supporters to demonstrate in support of him in other places like outside courthouses no more than a dozen-ish people have shown up — and sometimes one or none. Forget police SWAT teams: a crack team from your local library could take those guys down like gazelles. Speaking of libraries, Mrs. Johnson’s library is going to be a polling place in November and she’s got her overdue stamp and a bad attitude and there’s going to be a line of people showing up to vote at her door and there is shit up with which she will not put.
(-) demographic disparity from the arrival of the larger number of new, Democratic-leaning voters into the American electorate outnumbering and displacing the smaller number of older-generation Republican-leaning voters who are leaving the American electorate. Yes, there are some harrowing numbers coming out about young voters’ low support of Biden but it doesn’t mean they support Trump instead. If nothing else, most young voters in this day and age don’t want to send their gay friends to hell and won’t pray or vote that way. And a lot of young voters are, you know, women. And older voters? Biden reduced the costs of two metric tons of prescription medications for them. And some of them have noticed. And they can do math.
(+) Trump portrayals to fearful Republicans that he is the only person who is standing between them and their own cultural, religious, and political extinction and that prosecution of him is persecution of them. I doubt his doomsaying will add any voters to his existing base, though. It’s mostly to keep as much of his base as scared and thus as activated as possible.
(-) GOP undermining of Republicans’ faith in election integrity and accurate tallying of votes — and thus GOP voter turnout. In a recent poll, a very small percentage of Democrats feared their votes in the primaries wouldn’t be counted accurately. (Not in the general election; in the primaries.) The same amount for Republicans? 32%. That is nooooooooot a good sign for Republicans going forward. For many reasons. At all.
(-) Fox News ain’t gonna be as helpful as they were last time. After Dominion handed Fox News their ass and Smartmatic is sharpening its knives and watching everything Fox News does this cycle like a hawk, Fox News’ own lawyers will stand athwart and say “NO.” (Reminds me: Somebody check on Tucker Carlson. I haven’t heard from him in a while. Somebody call his mama to see if he’s OK.)
So Trump’s basic math is maybe 46-47% minus everything else.
For Biden:
(+) Support for Biden as a candidate. Biden won 2020 with I think 48 or 51% of the popular vote. Yes, he’s been beaten up and gotten some feathers pulled out by, you know, governing but still. He’s only now about to actually start campaigning. So I can’t yet get a good current baseline.
(+) Strength of the economy (maybe). Big questions are whether most Americans notice whether grocery prices are coming down (because they seem to be behaving otherwise like economic indicators are good) or whether they’ll notice by November. As eggs go, so goes our nation.
(-) Absence of COVID-19. Trump Administration response/undermining-of-response to a pandemic that was killing Americans and their family members were a major factor in the 2020 election and now COVID isn’t present to campaign for Biden.
(-) Whether Hunter Biden is impeached and Joe Biden is damaged by it. Even if Hunter Biden is impeached I doubt it will appreciably change Joe Biden’s numbers or voter turnout. (Wait — Hunter Biden isn’t being impeached?)
(-) Whether Joe Biden is impeached for some Crime To Be Named Later. This could also backfire on Republicans as it did when Republicans impeached Bill Clinton. If someone finds an actual crime, text me.
(-) Voter apathy toward Biden. If Trump weren’t his opponent then voter apathy could portend doom for Biden but what Democrat would stay home when an actual comparative Mount Doom is on the GOP ticket? Trump continues to campaign for Biden in this regard.
(-) His age. We’ve all noticed. He might fall or say something dumb. Doesn’t mean he’s ineffective, though. As National-Treasure-Roy-Wood,-Jr. observed, every time Biden wakes up from a nap he solves something. And there’s been no recession.
(+) Existential argument that democracy itself is on the ballot. Trump continues to campaign for Biden in this regard. Biden doesn’t have to sell himself in this regard: everyone knows where he stands on this. Biden doesn’t have to say vote for me he just has to say I don’t care whether you vote for me or not. I’m just your Grandpa and I’m trustworthy and I won’t let you down. Just have to hold the line on democracy and we’re going to be OK. So hold the line.
So.
So to forecast that election what I’ll be watching for are things that would substantially impact each of those factors. I’ll pay little to no attention to the political day-to-day back-and-forth in the campaigns, trials, impeachment-investigation proceedings, etc. because the day’s headlines aren’t important to forecasting, only the major muscle movements are.
Now. All of this is just about forecasting the Political in 2024.
Oh, wait — I forgot about the House and the Senate. I probably should pay attention to them. Uh…
I don’t expect much of anything to get accomplished legislatively. And we might lose another Speaker or two along the way. That will be, you know, a hoot.
The solution to either/both? We already know: GOP moderates will have to ask Hakeem Jeffries for help to get anything done and/or to rescue them from themselves. (Recall that the candidate who got the most votes to become Speaker in a GOP-controlled House each time was Hakeem Jeffries. Mike Johnson may have the gavel but Hakeem Jeffries has the crown.) If the GOP fires its own Speaker again (or again and again) anywhen close to the election, Jeffries may just let the GOP flail right through Election Day to make them an additional immediate and undeniable voting issue — and then the day after help the GOP elect a new Speaker so Congress can ratify the election in the weeks after.
This means that as a forecasting matter the dynamics of the House are set and known. I won’t have to pay as much attention to it this year unless there’s a real curve ball along the way.
What does all this mean for after the 2024 elections?
Regardless of who wins, 2024 almost certainly will be the last election cycle with either Biden or Trump — or anyone of their generation. This means the day after Election Day this November, both parties will be looking at their bench strength, their platforms, and their voter bases. In light of all this right now, I keep coming back to this:
For Democrats, almost any good candidate will mobilize their voter base better than Biden, their platform appeals to a major segment, they still have the internal dynamism and flexibility to try new things, and their voter base is growing demographically and really wants to vote.
For Republicans, almost no GOP candidate can mobilize their base better than Trump, their platform is constrained by culture/holy warriors, their voter base is severely split between moderates and extremists, is shrinking demographically overall, and may be on the verge on giving up on voting because they’ve been told for too long that all elections are rigged and their votes don’t matter.
What happens after that? I mapped out those possibilities in my Scenarios for Futures of American Democracy here.
The political 2024 you expect may not be in the cards at all. This is how I’m thinking through it as a futurist instead.
See you next week.