Part 2 on that barrage of nightmare scenarios about a second Trump term

Some reassurance... with some terror at the end.

Vault Boy from the videogame Fallout saying “Hold up.”

Cassidy Steele Dale writes to equip you with the forecasts, foresight skills and perspectives, and tools you may need to create a better, kinder world.

And one of those ways is to show how as a futurist I’ve been puzzling through those nightmare scenarios.

Last week I wrote on the difference between forecasts and nightmare scenarios by looking at the recent barrage of nightmare scenarios about what might happen in a second Trump term. I ended with two points:

1. We’re in a situation in which forecasts and nightmare scenarios about a second Trump term are effectively the same thing because Trump’s own words about his second term directly imply that, and

2. For some Trump supporters that nightmare scenario is a utopian scenario instead.

I’ll explain the latter, then forecast what we might see in terms of campaign messaging as a result, and then talk about what we can glean about the future from reactions to those nightmare scenarios.

First, why nightmare scenarios about a Trump second term are a utopian scenario for his base:

Megagallons of ink and bytes have already been spilled in attempts to explain the reasons for political divisions in this country and reasons for Trump support. Many of the explanations have some merit.

But two recent books provide more cogent explanations — or at least condense ranges of explanations into more readable forms.

1. John Judis and Ruy Teixeira’s new book Where Have All the Democrats Gone? is about how the Democrats hollowed out some of their own base, how Trump snatched them up, and how Democrats may or may not recapture that base and thus the political future of the United States. The authors argue that the Republicans and then later also the Democrats (from the Reagan to Obama eras) succumbed to the siren call of Wall Street at the expense of Main Street to such a degree that the Democrats seemingly abandoned and sometimes alienated some working-class voters (mostly white but also some nonwhites). (The authors’ previous (2004) book and premise, The Emerging Democratic Majority, presumed that Democrats would retain their working-class base rather than neglect it in the meantime.) This allowed some working-class voters to become swing voters and Republicans, especially Trump, were able to scoop them up, if only for the moment. They argue that who wins those working class voters wins the margin enough to win the future for the long term.

2. I’m part way through Tim Alberta’s new book The Kingdom, the Power, and the Glory: American Evangelicals in an Age of Extremism which is on why American evangelicals support Trump and why they continue to. I’m not done with the book but I think he’s arguing that over the past few decades (1) the conservative fears about the 1960s counterculture and the rise of secularism after that combined with (2) the theological apocalypticism and End Times fears of the closing years of the 20th century, (3) sent fearful evangelicals in search of a savior and found it in Reagan and the GOP which (4) all dovetailed together into a mature Christian nationalism — the belief that God made America to be his agent and arm on the world stage but that the country is being stolen from God by liberals. Now (5) conservative Christians believe they face a demographic, cultural, and political existential threat from Democrats and only a strong (though flawed) man like Trump can save them and save God’s purpose for the world. (For more on how this theological strain works and how to counter it, see my guidebook, Combat Theology: How to Weaponize and De-Weaponize a Religion here.)

These factors together help explain why some working-class and conservative Christian voters cheer on Trump: he says he will defend and avenge them and turn America back toward Christ and back toward the working class over moneyed elites. They say they believe him because (1) they believe the media lies about him and (2) they, despite his misbehavior, likes that he admits he takes advantage of what he alleges is a rigged and corrupt system — validating their conspiratorial beliefs — and likes that he claims he knows how to turn that system back to their advantage. And (3) they believe the system, the media, and Hollywood — as they work now — are stacked against the working class and conservative Christianity. And that anyone who disagrees with them defends that system, wants to eradicate them, and opposes God’s Will. Thus elections, especially presidential elections, carry cosmic consequences and that Republican victories provide reasons for political and cosmic hope. And because they believe they’re running out of chances to escape eradication, Trump’s comments about the 2024 election being a “final battle” and that he will be “your justice and… your retribution” feeds right into their worldview.

Thus the Democrats’ nightmare scenario about a Trump win (unconstrained dictatorship) is a utopian scenario for Trump supporters (unconstrained defense of them and correction of the system in favor of them— even if it has to happen extralegally).

• Side Note: Biden — because he predates the both-parties-facing-Wall-Street era and even partly dealt with its limitations and ramifications as a United States Senator and as Vice President during the Great Recession — has been governing as if he (or the country) plans to post-date it. The pandemic (and other recent world events) also showed him the limitations, vulnerabilities, and consequences to the United States of overly-globalized manufacturing and supply chains. So he’s been attempting to re-shore and friend-shore some industries, reconstruct and repair the infrastructure necessary to do it, and strengthen labor (which he’s always been a friend of). None of these efforts are (or will) come to fruition in time to help him at the ballot box — and he’s barely tried to message it — but he’s been trying to rebalance more in favor of Main Street. He’s governing from a different paradigm than either party of recent decades. (I’m commenting on age and perspective here. Similarly, because I am old enough to predate the rise of conservative evangelicalism, its media, and its megachurches of the 1990s and 2000s I haven’t had to go through the painful theological deconstruction some conservative Christians in their 20s, 30s, and 40s have in recent years. I predate and post-date that historical window and its theology.)

A quick forecast of what campaign messaging might look like for 2024:

In light of all this, we can expect that…

• Trump being Trump, and based on everything he’s saying nowadays and everything he’s said all along, probably will say I will protect you from them. This is a variation of the ordinary campaign theme If we don’t win, we will lose at their expense.

• Biden being Biden, based on everything he’s saying nowadays and everything he’s said all along, probably will say I will protect all of us from him. This is a variation off of the unusual campaign theme If he wins, we all lose.

So are the Trump nightmare/utopian scenarios inevitable?

First, like I wrote last week, nightmare scenarios are written to be wakeup calls designed to prevent disaster. Utopian scenarios by contrast are designed as visions and calls to action — depictions of what the world could be if we make it so.

• Ever since Obama’s hope-and-change optimistic rhetoric crashed and burned against Republican intransigence early in his first term — and because conservative Republicans moreso fear the future for the reasons I mentioned above — most Americans these days don’t posit utopian visions for America. And we have several generations of Americans alive and voting today who have no lived experience of when America worked right or when American politics wasn’t logjammed, paralyzed, terrified, and hostile. This means that Americans nowadays default to nightmare scenarios and can’t imagine positive ones hardly ever anymore.

• But that doesn’t mean Americans can’t or won’t dream of a better future — just look at all the creativity and work being done to repair and preserve the environment, for example — and you’ll see Americans dream and work for better all the time… just not in politics very often. Not yet. If or when that logjam gets broken, however…

Robert Kagan’s nightmare scenario in the Post and The Atlantic’s nightmare scenarios have made a splash these past couple of weeks. I’ve paid closest attention to three particular reactions to them. Why these three? Because since futurists don’t just create one singular forecast — as Kagan did, and as Judis and Teixeira did — we create multiple forecasts instead. And to do that we look for the levers and/or forks in the road ahead that could yield different futures. So I’ve been looking for reactions that might suggest (or clarify) forks in the road ahead that would avert a nightmare (or utopian for some) scenario.

Three major ones are apparent: (1) that Trump might himself tack away from the dictatorship depiction, (2) that the GOP might internally sabotage his electoral chances, and (3) that other non-GOP factors might do it instead.

• (Note: Why am I not considering any of Trump’s court cases? Because none of them will thwart him in time from running or being able to take office. The most they might do is peel off a bit of his support along the way and close off some of his avenues of support before and after 2024. For example, verdicts so far now mean media organizations are less apt to lie about voting machines and processes, fewer people are apt to volunteer to serve as fake electors, and fewer people will be willing to storm the Capitol.)

1. Trump himself: Sean Hannity, in a town hall with Trump, gave Trump two opportunities to refute the idea that he would become a dictator in his second term and Trump failed to reassure anyone who might be worried. (His “I won’t be a dictator except on Day One” comment.) Instead he threw a head-nod to his I will go to great — even potentially dictatorial lengths — to defend you from them in an effort to reassure his base. This is the sort of thing I referred to last week (before he made this remark) that rather than a Venn diagram of facts (statements), forecasts, and nightmare scenarios being separate, overlapping circles in his case they may be a single stacked circle. As a futurist this gives greater credence to the idea that that nightmare (or utopian for some) scenario is a realistic forecast instead. One possible of several.

• The GOP itself: Robert Kagan — nobody’s liberal and nobody’s optimist — after witnessing the splash his op-ed created, felt obligated to write a follow-up in which he laid out ways that his nightmare scenario might be averted. For Kagan, that nut only cracks from the inside: he says only Republicans, particularly Republican statesmen with broad appeal, can hobble Trump and Trump’s chances by disavowing him in earnest. (He names a series of GOP heavy hitters and asks why they’re keeping their powder dry — for a future in a party he says is already functionally dead?) Kagan throws his hands up in the end, saying Republicans have always known what to do but none of them have been brave enough to do it, not of the levels nor seriously enough. Among those he named was George W. Bush but Kagan expresses no real faith in him, either. But I remembered later that Bush, Obama, and Bill Clinton made a joint statement following Biden’s inauguration, fresh in the wake of the Capitol Riot, calling for Americans to pull together. It struck me as fairly anodyne at the time but now I’m wondering if all three would speak together to try to hobble Trump. Trump supporters don’t consider George W. Bush a traitor. The Bushes reportedly loathe Trump (recall that Trump was pointedly not invited to George H. W. Bush’s funeral) so maybe…

• Democrats and anti-Trump Republicans: Greg Sargent in the Post responded to Kagan by attempting to ramp down fear that might lead to giving up in favor of rightsizing it to the point where that fear motivates action. But he made a point toward the end that got me to thinking about Biden’s and Trump’s poll numbers again. Sargent argued that — overall — voters have repeatedly beaten Republican candidates at the polls ever since Trump took office and he sees no evidence that that momentum is flagging. Which reminded me: While off-year elections aren’t great predictors of the direction the wind will blow in the next general election, the results of special elections can be, according to Nathaniel Rakich of 538. And in the special elections of this past September, Democrats overperformed from expectations in almost every case — winning some close elections very handily and dramatically closing gaps even in elections they lost. Why the disparity in expectation versus overperformance? I’m evermore concluding than approval ratings and the like for candidates matters less than how issues poll. This is no galloping revelation, of course, but it (1) helps explain why a generic Democrat wins against Trump in matchups and (2) means that a main predicate on which Trump second term nightmare scenarios are based — that Trump is beating Biden in the polls and is on deck to win in 2024 — may be simply wrong because we’re all looking at (and forecasting against) the wrong numbers. Wait — a generic Democrat wins against Trump? A recent New York Times/Sienna poll found that while Biden trails Trump by four points a generic Democratic candidate leads Trump by eight. (NBC News’ own poll found something similar.) Some Democratic politicos argue that poll cinches that Democrats need a candidate other than Biden but what I’m wondering is whether that generic candidate’s eight point lead is a reflection of issue-based voters’ leanings. Where I’m going with this is that one variable for political forecasting might be whether or not we’re in a phase when candidate polling is less of a predictor than issue polling is. And thus we may have no idea what Biden’s and Trump’s numbers really are but they may not be as dire for Biden as his polls suggest.

All of this is to say that nightmare scenarios — even plausible ones — aren’t forecasts. They’re devices. And other futures are still extremely possible — and maybe even more likely.

Last, dark twist: Nightmare scenarios sometimes depict the future some people, out of their anger and rage, really want.

What do I mean? Another nightmare scenario will be released on April 26 — the movie Civil War.

Some Americans, deep down, want one. Do you?