I don’t have to, but if Trump gets back in, I’m out of here. I’m 72 with a heart condition, bad kidneys, and apparently long COVID. (pretty sure, anyway - I see new MD on the 23rd) There’s a fair chance I won’t be around for the 2028 election, and I’ll be damned if I’m going to die in Donald Trump’s America. I want to die in a free country.
I have a 20-year old daughter, and extrapolating from her and her friends (I know, a dangerous thing), they are scarred by the covid scare years, aren't trusting authority (that means the liberals) and want to make sure they can earn a living when they graduate from college. They run cynical, but nowadays that is to the disadvantage of preachy liberals.
B. The Harvard Youth Poll - the gold standard of youth polling - finds that while there is a gap between the sexes and that boys prefer the GOP more than girls do, neither support them more than they do the Democrats. Kids are notoriously hard to poll and Harvard is one of the few that has seemed to master how to reach them.
I think if Trump somehow manages to take power, the consequences won't be limited to just the US... it would give oxygen to right-wingers, to dictators and to cruel, authoritarian movements all over the world. Other places wouldn't necessarily be safer - at least not for long. And in my view the United States would be the best place to be to fight back.
Jamie Galbraith, who is an Econ prof at the University of Texas in Austin, told me well over a decade ago something that's factored into my scenarios ever since. He said that Texas had been turning blue at a consistent rate (I don't recall exactly, but it was something like half a percent a year) for about 20 years at that point, in the early teens. If that trend continued, by 2024 -- 2026 at the latest, he said -- the state was going to tip to the Democrats.
And when it did, he added, the GOP would never win another presidential election. Texas has the second-largest pool of electoral votes in the country. Along with Florida, it's the bedrock of any GOP win, their counterbalance to the Dems' dominance in California. Losing it would be utterly fatal for the Republicans.
We're about to see if Galbraith's forecast was correct, or anything close to it. Certainly, based on the last few elections, the trend has continued, so it seems tantalizingly possible.
We are still making contingency plans, and reviewed them just last night, which played hell with our sleep. Like Evan, we've put off getting a dog. We're also not replacing the car, or buying furniture. Every time I walk through the house, I tally up what's worth packing up to ship to Canada, and what will stay behind, and how we're going to sell off assets. (This move, if it happens, will also be our Death Cleaning purge.) I'm coming to terms with the awful possibility that I may never see my 87-year-old mama again.
She better win. She needs to win. Because I'm too old to change countries again.
I don't know. I do know that before Biden dropped out, I was hearing more people making more serious and well-thought-out contingency plans to get out if he won than ever before. People who could answer without hesitation where they were going after November if he seized power. I have the outlines of one. I haven't thought about it much since Kamala's campaign started, but I can't say that if the unthinkable happens, I won't take a more serious look at it. I can also say part of why I've waited to get a new dog is that I want to see what happens November 5. It's not 100% that, I've also been traveling a lot.
(My old 18-year-old lab mix died last April, and I've been "ready" to get a new one since this April or so.)
But I will also say that part of that has to do with what I do and how I can continue to do what I do best if the unthinkable were to happen. Would it be here, or would it be from somewhere that happens to be in the same timezone, just a little further south and away from a Trump who's extremely upset by people who call him Trash Hitler on the internet? Dunno.
And you know i'm fully aware of all the demographic stuff that's either coming or is already here. But it's more of a sense that, if Trump manages to steal this one, those demographics might not matter. Hungary's population doesn't exactly support their ruling regime, they just don't have any hope of fixing it, it's so far stolen.
But all that said, I'm optimistic that it won't come to that, and I'd rather it not. I'd rather move out of the US when I'm good and ready for happy reasons, and on a part-time basis!
"When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro!" (The late great Hunter S. Thompson) I've been watching the weird since 1968 when they shot Bobby Kennedy and MLK, Jr. I'm sticking it out.
I don’t have to, but if Trump gets back in, I’m out of here. I’m 72 with a heart condition, bad kidneys, and apparently long COVID. (pretty sure, anyway - I see new MD on the 23rd) There’s a fair chance I won’t be around for the 2028 election, and I’ll be damned if I’m going to die in Donald Trump’s America. I want to die in a free country.
Before you celebrate too soon, the youngest voters are trending more conservative than those in their older twenties, according to this Axios poll. https://www.axios.com/2024/09/28/gen-z-men-conservative-poll
I have a 20-year old daughter, and extrapolating from her and her friends (I know, a dangerous thing), they are scarred by the covid scare years, aren't trusting authority (that means the liberals) and want to make sure they can earn a living when they graduate from college. They run cynical, but nowadays that is to the disadvantage of preachy liberals.
A. The Axios poll is boys only.
B. The Harvard Youth Poll - the gold standard of youth polling - finds that while there is a gap between the sexes and that boys prefer the GOP more than girls do, neither support them more than they do the Democrats. Kids are notoriously hard to poll and Harvard is one of the few that has seemed to master how to reach them.
https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/latest-poll
I like your math. I hope you're right.
Only you could make me cry from positivity. At work. Thank you for being you, and for sharing that with the rest of us.
I think if Trump somehow manages to take power, the consequences won't be limited to just the US... it would give oxygen to right-wingers, to dictators and to cruel, authoritarian movements all over the world. Other places wouldn't necessarily be safer - at least not for long. And in my view the United States would be the best place to be to fight back.
Jamie Galbraith, who is an Econ prof at the University of Texas in Austin, told me well over a decade ago something that's factored into my scenarios ever since. He said that Texas had been turning blue at a consistent rate (I don't recall exactly, but it was something like half a percent a year) for about 20 years at that point, in the early teens. If that trend continued, by 2024 -- 2026 at the latest, he said -- the state was going to tip to the Democrats.
And when it did, he added, the GOP would never win another presidential election. Texas has the second-largest pool of electoral votes in the country. Along with Florida, it's the bedrock of any GOP win, their counterbalance to the Dems' dominance in California. Losing it would be utterly fatal for the Republicans.
We're about to see if Galbraith's forecast was correct, or anything close to it. Certainly, based on the last few elections, the trend has continued, so it seems tantalizingly possible.
We are still making contingency plans, and reviewed them just last night, which played hell with our sleep. Like Evan, we've put off getting a dog. We're also not replacing the car, or buying furniture. Every time I walk through the house, I tally up what's worth packing up to ship to Canada, and what will stay behind, and how we're going to sell off assets. (This move, if it happens, will also be our Death Cleaning purge.) I'm coming to terms with the awful possibility that I may never see my 87-year-old mama again.
She better win. She needs to win. Because I'm too old to change countries again.
I don't know. I do know that before Biden dropped out, I was hearing more people making more serious and well-thought-out contingency plans to get out if he won than ever before. People who could answer without hesitation where they were going after November if he seized power. I have the outlines of one. I haven't thought about it much since Kamala's campaign started, but I can't say that if the unthinkable happens, I won't take a more serious look at it. I can also say part of why I've waited to get a new dog is that I want to see what happens November 5. It's not 100% that, I've also been traveling a lot.
(My old 18-year-old lab mix died last April, and I've been "ready" to get a new one since this April or so.)
But I will also say that part of that has to do with what I do and how I can continue to do what I do best if the unthinkable were to happen. Would it be here, or would it be from somewhere that happens to be in the same timezone, just a little further south and away from a Trump who's extremely upset by people who call him Trash Hitler on the internet? Dunno.
And you know i'm fully aware of all the demographic stuff that's either coming or is already here. But it's more of a sense that, if Trump manages to steal this one, those demographics might not matter. Hungary's population doesn't exactly support their ruling regime, they just don't have any hope of fixing it, it's so far stolen.
But all that said, I'm optimistic that it won't come to that, and I'd rather it not. I'd rather move out of the US when I'm good and ready for happy reasons, and on a part-time basis!
You know, a place here, a place there, etc.
Amen.
"When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro!" (The late great Hunter S. Thompson) I've been watching the weird since 1968 when they shot Bobby Kennedy and MLK, Jr. I'm sticking it out.
Thank you I think we all needed to hear this today ❤️💙💙💙💙💙
Thanks for a hopeful word.