Forecasting the 2024 Presidential Election from the Sky Down

It's not as simple as Trump versus Biden.

Cassidy Steele Dale writes to equip you with the forecasts, foresight skills and perspectives, and tools you may need to create a better, kinder world.

And one of those ways is to forecast the world ahead.

Back in August I wrote on Trump’s odds of retaking the White House in the 2024 election, how he polls against Biden right now doesn’t matter much, and about the demographic boulder that’s about to roll down onto the GOP. Last week I highlighted a recap of Democrats’ overperformance in 30 special elections last month. And my very first newsletter was about where all this could go in a few years and what that would mean for futures of American democracy.

I’ll keep you updated on my forecasting thinking on the 2024 election as I have new thoughts.

Most forecasts tend to be based on data and trends. They’re based on what can be substantiated from what’s going on in the present. They’re built from the ground up.

Sometimes in order to forecast accurately you have to go beyond what you can build from the ground up. Sometimes you have to simply posit what could be. Sometimes you have to forecast from the sky down.

So let’s consider the range of what’s possible for the 2024 presidential election but do so mostly from the sky down.

Context and reminders first:

Biden’s poll numbers continue to be bad — they hover around 40%, which shouldn’t be surprising in this hyper-polarized era. All it means is that half of the country already hates you and you’re disappointing some of your own voters. That’s part of why Trump’s numbers hovered around the same 40%.

• Winnie the Pooh as president would poll around 40% and everyone would be worried about the Pooh-Piglet ticket going into 2024. But that doesn’t equal support at the ballot booth and doesn’t add on the number of voters who would be voting against Voldemort.

• So what we would look for in election results for each candidate would be support numbers plus negative partisanship (voting against the other candidate) numbers rather than support levels alone.

Next let’s consider what could really undermine support for a candidate from the candidate’s own base.

• In Biden’s case the risks probably come from a possible recession, because that can be a political killer, and/or some other sort of political or economic cataclysm. I do not think the Hunter Biden laptop or drug-fueled wrongdoings will sink Joe Biden. All Joe Biden has to do — which he absolutely will because it’s true — is publicly say I love my son. He has a problem but I still love him because he’s my son. You probably know someone, maybe even someone you love, who has a problem like my son… and poof — ‘scandal’ is over. Biden also could offset those losses by highlighting his actual accomplishments (which are significant) and by standing strong against Russia in Ukraine (check), HAMAS in Israel (check under way), and China against Taiwan (hopefully NO check will be needed).

• In Trump’s case, he’s on track to be found guilty on a lot of the (so far) 91 charges against him with more charges and trials forthcoming. And a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 45% of Trump supporters would not vote for him if he were convicted of a felony by a jury (though 35% still would) and 52% wouldn’t vote for him if he were serving time in prison on Election Day. He’s already been found liable for tax fraud. He could be bankrupt and/or the Trump Organization in receivership by the GOP convention, and his wealth and image as a successful businessman are half the source of his political credibility. He could lose some political support as his empire dissipates. Regardless, whether or not that 45% loss number is accurate in the end, what the poll suggests is that some significant measure of Trump supporters will stay home on Election Day if he’s convicted of anything significant between now and the GOP convention. For argument’s sake, let’s say the 45% number isn’t correct and the real number is 10%.

And a reminder: the country is so polarized and so many of the states in the Electoral College lean so far to one side or the other that only a few states aren’t already settled matters for 2024: Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and perhaps North Carolina.

• Several pundit forecasts say Nevada and Pennsylvania will go blue and that North Carolina will go red.

• Georgia may lean blue in polling as Trump goes on trial for attempting to steal the 2020 election in the state. Georgians remember. (And it was very close in Georgia and North Carolina last time.)

So how could the election shake out? Here are six possibilities:

1. Trump wins the GOP nomination but is too damaged from loss of support from multiple convictions to win enough tossup states. Biden wins.

2. Trump, for whatever reason (Scott Galloway speculates Trump may cut plea deals in trade for not running for office but the GOP instead might find some procedural way to box him out), does not become the GOP nominee and for whatever reason cannot viably run as an independent. The GOP fields another ticket instead. A significant segment of the GOP’s base concludes that since Trump — the undeniable favorite to be the nominee — is not on the ticket that the GOP has betrayed them and/or is no longer conservative or populist enough and they decide to stay home rather than vote. Trump hobbles the GOP ticket through daily snark online. Biden wins. (This feeling of betrayal could cripple the GOP’s ability to win the presidency for a generation.)

3. Trump does not become the GOP nominee but runs as an independent anyway. He splits the GOP vote. Biden wins. (If Trump leaves behind a political infrastructure, or even a platform for populist Trumpism, the GOP vote may split for a generation, rendering the GOP unable to elect another president for a long, long time.)

4. Trump becomes the GOP nominee but Biden, for whatever reason (perhaps a health reason), does not become the Democratic candidate. Trump’s baggage matched against a less familiar Democratic candidate makes the election too close to call.

5. Neither Trump nor Biden run in 2024. Both parties field new, lesser-known candidates and are forced to rely on extant negative partisanship and whatever political and demographic tailwinds they can take advantage of. The vote looks like the generic ballot. The Democratic ticket probably would have a slight edge. Democratic candidates have been overperforming in special elections this year, so it may be larger than a slight edge but it doesn’t show up in polling; it shows up in reality.

6. No Labels or another political group fields a third party candidate, splits the vote for both parties and prevents anyone from reaching the 270 Electoral College votes necessary for victory. Congress, in a contingent election, with its overall Republican majority, probably elects Trump (or whoever the GOP candidate is) President of the United States regardless of who won the popular vote. (The risks to continued faith in American democracy would then become immense.)

So buckle up. The Democratic candidate — Biden or not — is apt to win in most cases. The election isn’t apt to be a simple Trump-versus-Biden rematch with a magic, politically bulletproof Trump and a damaged, low-polling Biden. As you can see, it’s far more complicated than that. The fall of 2024 will be a very different political world than today.

Is any of this structured or substantiated? Not really. And you couldn’t substantiate much this far before any election anyway. Is it more comprehensive than what could be projected from substantiation? Yes. Does it contain all the possible futures for the 2024 election? No — there are professionals who do this for their clients in private — but it’s probably most of them. Is it more apt to contain the actual future than what present data suggests? Yes. Will this reduce the likelihood of surprise? Yes. Can you plan against it? Probably. Is it more likely to be right? Yes.

Is it possible that, with demographic and political trends being what they are, 2024 will be the last close, nail-biting presidential election for a very long time? Is it possible that the political logjam and hyper-polarization of the past few decades is about to end? Oh, yes. Very much yes.

What happens after that? Well, it gets weird. Or very good. Or very bad.

Buckle up. But have faith. Your faith and hope is deserved.