Trump's early odds in 2024 and this fall in this newsletter
Soon: How to think like a futurist, winning at tennis, whether doomsday preppers are right, and what the hell happened to the Southern Baptist Convention.
Cassidy Steele Dale writes to equip you with the forecasts, foresight skills and perspectives, and tools you may need to create a better, kinder world.
Now and looking ahead:
Now:
Scott Galloway argues this week in his newsletter that once Trump realizes how little of a chance he has to win the 2024 election he’ll make a deal with federal prosecutors to plead guilty in trade for his freedom and to never run for any office again.
Wait – how little of a chance? But aren’t Trump and Biden polling neck and neck? Yes, in popular polling… but the voting population as a mass doesn’t make the decision; the Electoral College does.
So what does the Electoral College look like for 2024? Most states are already decided – they lean way too far toward one or the other to be competitive. So which states are still in play? Polling pundits largely agree that the key swing states in 2024 will be Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, and North Carolina – all of which have been trending bluer and most of which Biden won in 2020. Biden would need only about three of those seven states to win and none of them are trending red.
Does this mean the 2024 election is a cinch for the Democrats? No. A lot could change between now and November 2024. (I’ll work on what those things could be as the election gets closer.) Does it mean Trump (or any Republican candidate) faces a hard uphill battle for 2024, though? Yes. The demographic boulder I talked about in Possible Futures for American Democracy (2023-2040) is now plain to see and summarized nicely in Scott Galloway’s newsletter this week. It’s very worth your time.
Looking ahead:
Over the next few weeks I’ll start showing you how to read the news for trends, how to avoid information overloads (and bad news overloads), how to see the world through a futurist’s eyes, how to construct your own basic forecasts on things you care about, and more. These will appear in a recurring series titled How to Think Like a Futurist.
I’ll intersperse those newsletters with other forecasts and pieces like a review of Jim Davis’ upcoming book The Great Dechurching which outlines the findings of a large study on why some Americans have stopped going to church. I’ll take a look at it from a futurist’s point of view and ask whether America is actually secularizing. (Spoiler alert: yes but no but yes but no.) For a sneak peek of The Great Dechurching see Jake Meador’s recent piece in The Atlantic.
I’ll also do some forecasts on what’s in your pockets, some on futures of clothing (via talking about Star Trek uniforms), and I’ll point out what a one-man radio station near the North Pole, amateur tennis players, and doomsday preppers have in common (and why it reeeeeeally matters to your future). And I’ll try to explain what the hell happened to the Southern Baptist Convention and why that matters to the near term future.
BONUS: It’s so frickin’ hot outside this summer (more on that in another newsletter) but in case you need it, here’s something cold to stream: snowfall from last year in The Lofoten Islands in Norway. I stream this sometimes when I need something peaceful on in the background.