"If He Wins, Will I Have to Leave the Country?"

And leave everything and everyone I love behind?

Cassidy Steele Dale forecasts and contextualizes the present to equip us to make a better, kinder future…

… and one of those ways to talk about why you shouldn’t leave.

This past Sunday I was standing at the back of the sanctuary before worship service with a parent who told me their child — who is trans — worries they’ll have to flee the country if Trump and Vance win. I said no and no and no but I failed to spit out anything coherent or articulate or good about why.

So I went and sat down on the far edge of the pew and forgot whatever I was going to write about this week because I couldn’t think about anything but that.

Now, to be clear: I am who I am and I can’t judge when any LGBTQ+ person should stay or leave or try to go back into a closet that’s already on fire. I’m not qualified. I don’t have the right.

• Evan Hurst should write about this. He must have already. If he hasn’t, he should. And whoever Evan Hurst says should write about this, should. Now.

I’m a futurist. I can only talk about the future.

So I’d like to point out the obvious.

First, the young are about to electorally outnumber the old. By the 2028 election, Gen Z and the Millennials will outnumber all the older generations combined. (48.5% now, 54.1% by 2028, and 61.5% by 2036.) And they vote two-thirds blue and the older generations who vote red are dying by the day. And with him on the ballot and her being her a metric ton of new voters have registered to vote — for her. Him on the ballot may accelerate their doom. Him on the ballot may bring the arrival of 2028 up to now. Don’t leave: you’ll miss the turn of the tide. Don’t leave: you are the turn of the tide.

See, they’re not behind a demographic 8-ball, they’re behind a demographic boulder. If they don’t win the presidency this time, they probably can’t again for a long, long time. And if they don’t win this time, they’ll shatter. When it comes to the presidency, they’re not about to win forever; they’re about to lose forever. Or at least long enough for the world to change the rest of the way. And they know it. Which is why they’re doing everything they can — legally or not — to fuck with our elections. They know this is their absolute last chance.

Second, these damn kids these days on my electoral lawn. These kids just won’t send their friends to hell for being gay or for any of the rest like we were supposed to teach them to but these kids won’t because we didn’t. We keep getting accused of raising our kids to be woke when really we raised them to be kind. But we can see why you can’t tell the difference: because there ain’t one.

• Need something you’ve probably never heard before and shocked the hell out of me when it started happening? My kids give their stuffies pronouns. And then hug them because all stuffies need hugs. And what do you think the future will look like when it’s full of grownups who were kids like that?

The kind are about to demographically, theologically, and politically displace the cruel. And about to might NOT be tomorrow, it might be today. Tomorrow may not be some faraway-future-day. Tomorrow might show up next month. Tomorrow might arrive before the sun sets on November.

Third, this ain’t the bad old days. You have friends now. You have defenders, defenses, and support. Back then there was no help that wasn’t in clandestine networks. Back then there weren’t people who would fuck with the cruel by fucking with their cruelty. Back then there weren’t people who would yank up the cruel, chew them up, spit them out, and send them crying home to their pastor. People like me and like everyone who is reading this right now.

• And something’s beginning to dawn on the cruel really hard: We’re not trapped in here with their Christianity; they’re trapped in here with ours.

But if none of that is enough and if you still want to go, then pack your shit: I’ve got a brand new 2025 Expecto Patronus, a tank of gas, I know which road goes to Canada, and I know where there’s a nice little treehouse at the end of the world.

But you should rethink that because Fourth, the next kid is gonna need you. You must stay here and open your eyes wide to the horrors of today and bear witness to all of what’s about to happen because tomorrow some kid will be scared and they’ll need you and you won’t be able to help from an off-grid treehouse at the ass-end of nowhere. They’ll fear they’ll only-ever-be in danger and that there’s no hope for them and you’ll need to be there to say Babydoll, you ain’t seen nothing. There was this one time when we almost lost it all and I got so scared I almost gave up. But then… and then… and then… and I’m still here and I’m happy now and you’re gonna be and then you’re gonna help the next one. Because there’s gonna be a next one who needs you. It gets better because it got better and it got better because it gets better.

So. Those are my reasons. Maybe they’re inadequate. Others can certainly do better.

But don’t leave. You’ll miss the good stuff. You are the good stuff. And the next kid will need a rescue and a reason to believe. The next kid will need you.

Again, I’m just a futurist which means I say things it’s way, way too early to believe. Because right now it looks bad. Because it is bad. We’re balanced on an absolute razor’s edge — things could go really badly and I know how very, very bad it can get — and I may be very, very, very wrong.

But I’m not.