How to Go to BBQ Hell via the Use of Data
The value of expertise.
Cassidy Steele Dale writes to equip you with the forecasts, foresight skills and perspectives, and tools you may need to create a better, kinder world.
And one of those ways is to prevent you from going to BBQ hell.
So behind the scenes right now (while I’m monitoring the runup to the Virginia state elections and the likelihood of a federal government shutdown) I’m writing a longer post on what and how you can read to find trends but that’s taking a while.
In the meantime I’ll talk about who’s going to BBQ hell and how to get there via data science.
As a futurist I believe in data. But there’s good data and bad data. And good and bad findings from studies. Garbage in, garbage out. And sometimes data scientists who don’t know the difference on the front end will yield findings on the back end that are nonsensical and you need to bring in an actual expert to tell those data scientists Nope. Nope. Nope. Nopeity-nope-nope. And before you say No, it’s good; they used math the expert can say Yeah, BAD math.
I don’t mean mere disagreement over what the data means, I mean times when the data folks miss the entire point.
I once had some data scientists try to convince me that a particular author wasn’t Christian because their model found no conventional theological language or argumentation in the text therefore he must not really be a Christian. His entire book, however, was a long argument for Christian nationalism but, like most Christian nationalists, he made those arguments with near-zero amounts of Bible and he made his arguments very, very badly. The data scientists balked at that explanation and replied that his argumentation was, according to their findings, X% secular-political and I cut them off by holding up the guy’s book and pointing at the enormous cross on the cover. They continued protesting and I said You are finding that because he is theologically stupid. Only a real expert can tell you when the person you’re studying is stupid; data can’t.
Similarly, every once in a while I’ll come across a report that says that children’s ministries in an area are facing declining participation and the report’s authors conclude that means people in the area are becoming more secular. I’ll then go double-check because sometimes a decline in children’s ministries doesn’t mean a decline in interest, it means a decline in the number of children locally. (Meaning a demographic change in the area is under way.)
A very good religious polling agency found (back in the 1990s) that Americans’ interest in spirituality was rising but Americans’ participation in churches wasn’t increasing. At all. The polling agency concluded that, because participation in churches wasn’t increasing commensurate to Americans’ stated interest in spirituality, Americans were lying about their interest in spirituality. Instead what was happening was that Americans were genuinely reflecting interest in Gardener-mode spirituality but that churches were offering mostly Knight-mode dogma but the polling agency didn’t know that change was under way.
This is why — no matter how good the data findings might look — you’re going to need some longtime experts to check that work before it goes out the door.
Trip Advisor failed to do that recently and thus they generated a bizarro map of the best cities in America for BBQ. Comedian Matt Mitchell provided Trip Advisor the self-check the site didn’t do, he did it pro bono, and as a bonus he made some predictions as to some folks’ eternal destiny.
Now, it’s clear that Trip Advisor’s error was simply data-crunching the BBQ restaurant reviews of its users, probably none of whom can recognize good BBQ from a hole in the wall.
To level-set: Oftentimes a good BBQ place is a hole in the wall or on the side of a highway, has a pig on the sign (extra bonus if the pig is eating pork), and the building is 80 years old and looks extremely flammable. Take it to go; they won’t expect you to eat it there. If they sell their own sauce, buy it. There will be two guys out back with the smokers. They’ll be standing there not saying much; they’re listening to the whisperings of The Archangel Apple Cider Vinegar. Your kids can wave, but don’t talk to them; they’re doing the Lord’s work.
So in this case Trip Advisor’s errors were procedural, editorial, theological, and in critical thinking. Critical thinking, y’all: Critical Thankin.’ Don’t be Trip Advisor on this sort of thing.
Now, I’m dumping on Trip Advisor way too hard right now but I’m actually a fan. Their data people got loose on this this one time. Trip Advisor’s recommendations for Richmond, Virginia — of which I’m a marginal expert — are actually superb. If you need a few extra particularly picturesque back alleys, let me know. Some of them have murals.
My point is find yourself an expert before you accept ‘rock-solid’ findings from your data scientists.
But Caveat: Trust medical data scientists. Those folks check for dumb pretty well. Those folks are goooooooooooooood. The ‘experts’ on that from previous eras believed in the power of phlegm. Or something.
Regardless, y’all, have faith: we’re collectively getting smarter on all of this. We are. No matter what it looks like on TV or the Interwebs.
Don’t believe me? Would you rather go to a dentist today or in 1959?
You see what I mean. Have faith. Keep going.
Lifelong Left Coaster here, currently at home in Seattle. We have wonderful food in Seattle. But I don't go to Seattle for BBQ any more than I'd go to Kansas City for a cedar-planked maple-crusted coho salmon fillet. Rigtht-thinking people do not do such things.
When we get to Texas, there's often a detour to Lockhart. (Austin's also perfectly adequate.) We buy Black's bones by the kilo, and feast on them for days. Memphis? Yeah. Never had KC, but Ted Lasso's not wrong about much.
But you've made a great case for why numbers always need to be accompanied by a knowledgeable human -- a need that's only likely to accelerate as AI takes over. Someone somewhere in the process need to be able to hold up and say: That just ain't right.
Ever notice that confirmation bias sculpts the reaction to stupid results? And sometimes it’s the bias that the process yields truth infallibly.