Cassidy Steele Dale writes to equip you with the forecasts, foresight skills and perspectives, and tools you may need to create a better, kinder world.
And one of those ways is to talk about food planning.
First: Don’t forget that mushroom soup, frizzled-crispy-onion green bean dish that Jesus served at the first Thanksgiving that made everyone glow holy-brighter than Gabriel and then all fall asleep on the sofa during football. And then God rested in the easy chair with his arm over his eyes and a dachshund puppy snuggled up on his neck.
Second: I’ve been trying to put together some initial Think Future-ing on Trump’s tariffs and mass deportations plans but we don’t have the time for that right now so I’m going to shorthand this and get it right down to their impacts on the kitchen table like I was suggesting last week.
Note: I’ll send out two newsletters this week. I’m sending this one out today (Wednesday) because nobody will read anything even semi-serious on Thanksgiving (Thursday) which is why tomorrow I’ll send out another one with fun and funny things you can watch/talk about/ignore with your family.
In other words, if you want to talk politics — or politics-and-religion-adjacent matters with family over the holiday, this newsletter will help. If you don’t, then tomorrow’s might help instead. Tomorrow’s will probably include a pocketknife recommendation and the entire cosmos.
So, we here at Think Future Central have been reading the tea leaves and have decided to stock up on canned goods and shelf-stable items. Just in case. Just to be on the safe side. Here’s why:
Tariffs — no matter what anyone tells you — do not punish foreign countries; they punish you. When foreign companies have to pay more to sell their goods in your country they pass down those costs to you. Every time. And the risk of retaliation from the targeted countries are apt to make things even worse for Americans’ kitchen tables as a result. This is why almost no one seriously considers enacting broad-based tariffs any more and haven’t for a hundred years. Every economist, every historian, and every Ferris Bueller’s Day Off fan in the world knows this — and knows this is a borderline-disastrous idea on every level.
Now, not all of us are economists or historians — and I’m certainly not — but holy crap, y’all, this was in Ferris Bueller.
Anyway, Trump truthed-or-something on Monday that on his first day in office he’d enact a 25% tariff on anything imported from Canada and Mexico and 10% on anything from China. Those are our three biggest trading partners, by the way.
Quick bits: Can a President act unilaterally on tariffs? Is this just a ploy instead? How do tariffs work and would they actually bring any businesses or industries back to the United States? What does the National Retail Federation have to say about this? What are the major things we import? How about more specifically imported from and exported to Mexico? What has Walmart, AutoZone, Lowe’s and others said so far about whether they’ll have to raise prices?
From the Washington Post:
U.S. imports from Mexico include cars, machinery, electrical equipment, food and beer. Canada supplies oil and gas, machinery and parts, and much else. The United States relies on China for electronics, particularly phones, along with toys, furniture and plastics. Economists warn that tariffs could affect grocery prices, which were a key election issue. Mexico supplied more than half of U.S. fresh fruit imports in 2022, according to the Agriculture Department.
And here’s some more overnight from PBS NewsHour:
OK, so let’s just focus on grocery prices — let’s assume you don’t need to make a major, say, car purchase next year — the price of eggs and groceries will almost certainly increase if he implements these tariffs. We can absorb that, right?
Yeah, unless something happens to our poultry workers and our agricultural labor force at the same time. Like nearly half of it being arrested and deported. Along with a quarter of your home construction workers and significant percentages of medical, home care, and restaurant workers.
This means that — between the tariffs and mass deportations — cars, gas, electronics, phones, medical care, clothes, shoes, toys, homes, furniture, beer, and food are all apt to become more expensive. Maybe much more expensive.
Extra kicker: Even if half of undocumented people aren’t arrested and deported, merely arresting and deporting a small percentage of them from their workplaces will scare a large percentage of them away from going to work any more. Or necessarily staying in that state.
This means that the first big federal raid could function like the sharpest pool-ball-break in the history of the United States: a lot of the home construction, medical, and agricultural labor force in this country will scatter. In every direction. Immediately.
Hope nobody needs them. And that American companies can afford to replace them with higher-paid workers. Without passing those costs on to us.
So, again, here at Think Future Central we’re dedicating what money we can to stocking up on things before any of this can start. Things we know we’ll buy next year anyway. Again, just in case. For us this will include:
Chicken, turkey, and meat. Our freezer is going to become a Vault of Tyson.
And frozen fruit. All the fruits.
And shelf-stable items like pasta and rice.
And over the counter medications. All of our usuals.
Canned vegetables, tuna, etc. If you are what you eat, then I plan to become diced or crushed tomatoes by next Christmas. I will not retain my structural integrity.
Canadian maple syrup — by which I mean all maple syrup because Canada is the only country in the world that maintains a Strategic Maple Reserve. Seriously.
And Bubba Burgers. Because summer grilling season.
And cans of Manwich.
And Mexican Cokes — the kind made with real sugar like they made in the 1980s rather than with corn syrup.
And salsa in jars. It’s probably a good idea to spend some extra thought and time in your “ethnic” food aisle and your specialty grocer.
You get the idea: Stock up on shelf-stable stuff so you have money next year for soon-to-be-more-expensive perishables and (maybe) prescriptions.
Also:
If your thing is “made in America” but is made with components from overseas or are partially manufactured outside the United States — like cars from Ford and General Motors — consider buying or budgeting extra for that.
Make a list of the small local businesses you want to keep afloat through all this. That new takeout restaurant you love? Put it on the list. Their food supply and labor costs may fatally spike before they can fully get their feet under themselves as a business.
Consider whether the affordability of your hobbies may be impacted. For example, here’s how a prior proposal of Trump’s tariffs would have hit the tabletop game industry. And for you knitters out there: Yarn, y’all. Yarn. Those sheep might speak Canadian.
So.
Before the turkey coma takes over — or when you wake up: Make your lists. And make your plan. And don’t forget the Cream of Mushroom soup for that green bean dish.
And don’t forget your local Food Bank. Or your church’s soup kitchen. They’re going to need you. And they have shopping lists of their own. Or will very shortly.
Or maybe this is just a futurist over-preparing. After all, this is IF he enacts tariffs and orders mass deportations. Like he’s said he would. As core campaign promises. And like he’s done or tried to before. And like he’s already staffing and staging to do. Including planning an emergency declaration so he can mobilize the United States military domestically.
Or maybe he won’t do any of it. Maybe he’s just lying to everyone.
Besides stocking up on canned goods, etc., I'm telling everyone to buy another toaster, coffee maker, or anything else that makes your life worth living, because tariffs will them skyrocket in price.
Yes, I believe he will put the damn tariffs in place ASAP because he thinks it will show how tough and strong he is, and will hurt the other countries. And you can't talk him out of it. It's sort of like how he wants to deport all the "illegal immigrants" while hiring them to do the landscaping, etc., at MaraLago and his golf courses.
I wish I could believe he is lying. He is mean, mean spirited, evil and a total narcissist.