A Futurist's Initial Take on Biden's Campaign, SCOTUS' Immunity Ruling, plus more

And a few recipes for your Fourth of July. Seriously.

Photo by Tracey Buyce for National Geographic

Cassidy Steele Dale forecasts and contextualizes the present to equip us to make a better, kinder future…

… and one of those ways to talk about what we’re in the middle of.

OK, lots to get into — and not enough time so I’m going to have to break this into chunks over the next while.

• Plus, it’s the Fourth of July. We’ve all got burgers to grill today: it’s the law. More on that in a minute.

But yes, I’ve been trying to contain my freak-the-fuck-out-ness and I’m considering taking up that flock of Canadian elk on their invitation to disappear with them into the wilderness forever.

• They’ve named me GNORT HUUUURRRRRRRR rather than Cassidy Steele Dale because elk cannot enunciate.

First, on Biden’s candidacy. Everything I said last Saturday still holds. And it’s gonna hold until it doesn’t. It’s here: Possible Futures for the 2024 Democratic Ticket.

• Will Biden drop out? I’m increasingly leaning toward concluding he will plus there’s a rumor that new poll numbers will come out tomorrow or Friday that have Trump +8 (or something) nationally and states like Virginia recategorized as swing states. If so, then over the holiday weekend the DNC plus some others may have an incredibly hard conversation with Biden.

• I suspect that we’ll know Biden’s decision by maybe the end of next weekish.

• If Biden drops out I think he’ll ask his delegates to vote for Kamala Harris instead.

• I also don’t think anyone else will compete with Harris for the nomination. I suspect they’ll all endorse her within a few days of Biden throwing his support to her. They’re all smart people and they already completely understand their stakes. Some of them may jockey to become her running mate. (I could be wrong on this and we’ll get my Box of Squirrels scenario from last week’s post.)

Second, on the Supreme Court’s ruling on whether Presidents are immune from criminal prosecution. I’m still trying to understand what-the-Constitutional-fuck the Supreme Court just did with its immunity ruling. (I understand the ruling itself; I’m puzzling through the real second/third-order ramifications of the thing.) I’ll write on that separately very soon. I’ll probably do another “black sky” futures wheel on that.

• A “black sky” futures wheel is a technique futurists use when they must pull out all the stops and imagine the Worst. Future. Possible. I almost never do one but I did one just over a month ago if you need an example. It’s here: What If Trump Calls for a Civil War?

See, I don’t think what the ruling actually says matters; I think what people believe the ruling says and what Trump/Biden/whoever treats it as saying is what really matters.

Also, SCOTUS just cemented this election as one that requires voters to decide who they want to wield (apparent) unlimited, unchecked power. And who will refuse to wield unlimited, unchecked power if they get it.

Lastly on this, the conservative majority on the Court may have helped Trump and hurt him at the same time — and I swear to God I cannot decide whether they were secret geniuses or spectacularly stupid on this point:

• In an effort to delay Trump’s trial for overturning the 2020 election by creating a bizarro distinction between core, official, and unofficial crimes in their ruling SCOTUS ordered Judge Chutkan to go through allllllll the evidence in Jack Smith’s charges to determine which can be introduced at Trump’s trial and which cannot. With every piece of evidence presented — admissible or not — and every witness (like Pence) swearing in and testifying what they saw Trump do and say. In a weeks-long evidentiary hearing. In public. As soon as is practicable. Like, say, September. So we may get the trial after all without it being an actual trial and Trump will be tried in the court of public opinion. And then a few weeks later everyone will go to the polls.

Third, some quick hits:

• RFK, Jr. may be self-immolating and about to sink his campaign. He was accused of (literal) sexual assault and of (literally) eating a (literal) dog and his solution was to (literally) say Yes to the sexual assault, then say Aaaaand I may have done more bad stuff, and It was a goat not a dog and then (figuratively) pour gasoline all over himself and run around in little circles and giggle and ask for matches. I would not be surprised if his campaign is over in a few more weeks, all his supporters return to their original parties (or not), and his family takes him home to be real quiet for a while.

• Kevin Roberts, president of the Heritage Foundation, the organization that authored Project 2025 — the shadow agenda for Trump’s potential second term — said Tuesday on (currently-incarcerated) Steve Bannon’s “War Room” podcast, that the Right is “in the process of the second American Revolution, which will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be.” This makes me worry that the Project 2025 document contains some sort of plan for violent revolt or something. Has anyone read the appendices? (I will probably do a closer look at Project 2025, at whatever the revised GOP platform will be, and at what the Democratic candidate’s plan will be. Futurists love to read, you know, plans. Because plans like these are ideologically-driven forecasts and agendas.)

• SCOTUS’ overturning of the Chevron deference is actually the biggest damn thing this term. It will impact the life of every American for the next 40 years. At minimum. But more on that soon because I haven’t had a chance to dig through that with all the AAAAAAAAAAAAGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHH happening lately.

Lastly, for your immediate future. Like today.

If you need an incredibly simple, classic burger recipe from the master, George Motz:

If you need to overachieve, here’s how to make enormous whiskey cheeseburgers — but really this burger should be named The Damn, Boy.

If you just need an amazing burger/fry sauce, go to the 3:30-minute mark in this video:

If you need guidance/new ideas on how you should stack your burger ingredients, see this test series. Spoiler alert: they posit that the best order is bottom bun, cheese, then hamburger patty, then everything else on top.

And if you need a fun, light, little-nonsense-song from a time long ago:

Grill some burgers and watch some fireworks, everybody. We have a bit of time.

I’ll be back soon.

Sincerely,

GNORT HUUUUUUURRRRRRRRRRRR